As we approach the end of the year, it is always worth
reviewing the top trends that will be impacting supply chains for the coming
year and beyond.
But before we continue with this “tradition” it´s only fair
to review how accurate were our predictions for the year 2022.
Not surprisingly
the headwinds have continued this year, following from a year 2021 that was considered
by many as one of the most challenging in history, aggravated by the COVID
pandemic and the continued challenges brought by the acceleration of
e-commerce, Brexit or the disruptions in transport.
You can find the post with the predictions for 2022
here.
Overall, and considering the new and more severe challenges
that we have faced in 2022, it´s interesting to see that some of the trends we
identified last year, became a reality.
Supply Chain issues continued in 2022 and were aggravated by
the Ukraine-Russia war, a turn of events that no one was predicting last year.
While logistic prices were up in 2021 driven by shortages on
raw materials and transportation, this trend has continued as predicted and has
impacted other areas of the Supply Chain even further with inflation
skyrocketing and energy prices at an all-time high.
Finally, rightly so, sustainability has been at the
forefront of Supply Chains and businesses and has gained prominence as a key
indicator for decision making.
Experience should have thought us that a lot can happen in a
heartbeat, therefore predicting what 2023 has for us is like a game of roulette,
but here we go!
1- Inflation and the risk of recession: Preliminary data in
Europe shows inflation running at 10.7% for October; this is the highest ever
monthly reading since the euro zone’s formation and something we should expect
to continue to a higher or lesser extent in 2023.
Raw materials, transport,
energy will all be more expensive than in past years and this will continue
impacting Supply Chains and pushing for more efficient and streamlined
operations.
2- Globalisation in no more the panacea for business
development: With the recent geopolitical challenges we are facing, the focus
will be on “localization” VS “globalization” and we shall see assets being transferred
from high risk, and generally low cost, areas to more stable and trustworthy locations
that are also closer to the end customers.
Investment on fixed assets will be
under scrutiny and decisions will not only be made on the basis of lower costs.
3- Sustainability is here to stay: Governments are increasing
their demands for companies to prove that they operate ethical businesses
and this is becoming not just a “nice to have” and a sign of a company´s values,
but a license to operate with significant fines if companies were to fail to
comply.
All in all, while predicting what 2023 will bring is an almost impossible exercise, there are certain trends that are likely to gain prominance and we are ready for whatever the future brings!